Brisbane Q1 2026 Market Report

Executive Summary

Q1 2026 has continued the structural trends established in 2024-2025. Transaction volume remains elevated, institutional capital share continues climbing, and Olympic-precinct catalysts are driving outsized performance in select corridors.

Transaction Volume

Brisbane development site transactions (Q1 2026):

• $5m-$20m bracket: 38 transactions, ~$420m total
• $20m-$50m bracket: 19 transactions, ~$640m total
• $50m+ bracket: 6 transactions, ~$340m total
• Total: ~$1.4bn (vs $1.25bn Q1 2025, +12% YoY)

By corridor:

• Hamilton / Albion: ~$310m
• Bowen Hills / Newstead: ~$280m
• Cross River Rail precincts: ~$220m
• South Brisbane / West End: ~$180m
• Other inner: ~$210m
• Outer SEQ: ~$200m

Cap Rate Movement

Q4 2025 → Q1 2026 movements:

• Prime CBD office: 5.75-6.0% (flat)
• Prime industrial: 5.5-5.75% → 5.25-5.5% (-25bps)
• Prime retail: 6.0-6.5% (flat)
• BTR (stabilised): 5.5-5.75% (flat)
• PBSA (stabilised): 5.5-5.75% (flat)
• Healthcare: 5.0-5.5% (flat)

Industrial compression continues, driven by limited supply and persistent e-commerce demand.

BTR Pipeline

Committed Brisbane BTR pipeline reached $5.2bn by end-Q1 2026, up from $4.8bn end-Q4 2025.

Active operators (committed capital):

• Greystar / GIC: ~$1.3bn across 5 projects
• Mirvac (LIV): ~$1.1bn across 4 projects
• Cbus Property: ~$890m across 3 projects
• Frasers Property / Cbus: ~$650m across 2 projects
• Others (smaller operators): ~$1.25bn across 7 projects

Institutional Buyer Activity

Q1 institutional buyer share of $20m+ Brisbane development transactions: 32% (up from 28% Q4 2025).

Most-active institutional acquirers:

1. Mirvac
2. Cbus Property
3. Lendlease
4. Frasers Property
5. ISPT / Charter Hall Wholesale

Foreign Capital

Q1 foreign-buyer transactions: 8 deals, ~$310m total. Breakdown:

• Singapore: 4 deals
• Korea: 2 deals
• Japan: 1 deal
• US: 1 deal

FIRB approvals processed Q1: 14 (up from 11 Q4 2025).

Key Observations

1. Olympic-precinct premium continues — Hamilton/Albion outperforming Brisbane average by 8-15%
2. Industrial outperforming residential development sites on a like-for-like cap basis
3. Listed REIT participation muted — institutional via wholesale funds dominates
4. Mid-tier developer activity strong, particularly in middle-ring suburbs
5. Construction cost normalising — RLB Q1 index shows -1.2% vs Q4 2025

Q2 2026 Outlook

ACRES base-case for Q2:

• Transaction volume: $1.3-1.6bn
• Cap rate movement: 0-25bps further industrial compression; office stable
• BTR pipeline: $5.5-5.8bn by end-Q2
• Olympic-precinct continues outperformance

Data sourced from ACRES proprietary tracking, CoreLogic, Property Council of Australia, RLB, Cushman & Wakefield, JLL, Knight Frank, and public council records as of February 2026. Figures are indicative and not investment advice.

About ACRES

The Australian Commercial & Residential Group (ACRES) is a Brisbane-based specialist property advisory firm focused on development site sales, off-market transactions, and strategic landowner advisory across South East Queensland. ACRES maintains proprietary trackers on Brisbane transaction volume, cap rates, BTR pipelines, foreign capital flows, and corridor activity.

Daniel McCormack

Managing Director, ACRES — Australian Commercial & Residential Group

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