iSummary
Brisbane Q4 2025 property market retrospective — annual transaction volume, cap rates, BTR growth, institutional share.
Source: ACRES — Australian Commercial & Residential Group | acres.au
Annual Summary
2025 was Brisbane's strongest property transaction year since the 2017-2018 cycle peak. Total development site transaction volume reached ~$5.4bn, with institutional capital share climbing to 28% of $20m+ deals.
Quarterly Volume Progression
- Q1 2025: ~$1.25bn
- Q2 2025: ~$1.32bn
- Q3 2025: ~$1.38bn
- Q4 2025: ~$1.45bn
- Full year: ~$5.4bn
Compare:
- 2024: $4.6bn
- 2023: $3.9bn
- 2022: $5.1bn (cycle peak)
- 2021: $4.2bn
- 2020: $3.1bn
Cap Rate End-State
End-2025 vs end-2024:
- Prime CBD office: 5.75-6.0% (compressed 25bps)
- Prime industrial: 5.5-5.75% (compressed 50bps)
- Prime retail: 6.0-6.5% (flat)
- BTR (stabilised): 5.5-5.75% (compressed 25bps)
- Healthcare: 5.0-5.5% (compressed 50bps)
Defining Trends of 2025
- Institutional acceleration — Cbus Property, Mirvac, Frasers, foreign capital all increased Brisbane allocation
- Olympic-precinct emergence — Hamilton, Albion repriced 25-40% vs 2020
- BTR maturation — pipeline $1.6bn larger than start of year
- Construction cost flattening — first year of flat/declining construction cost since 2019
- Cross River Rail catchment activation — pre-opening pricing premium emerging
Most-Active Buyers (2025)
- Mirvac — 8 transactions, ~$520m
- Cbus Property — 5 transactions, ~$310m
- Lendlease — 4 transactions, ~$280m
- Frasers — 4 transactions, ~$240m
- ISPT — 3 transactions, ~$210m
Most-Active Vendors (2025)
Dominated by family offices, long-held landowners, and developer divestments. ACRES advised on 22 transactions totalling ~$420m in 2025.
What Didn't Happen
Some predicted 2025 dynamics that didn't materialise:
- No major listed-REIT capitulation
- No widespread BTR project cancellations
- No collapse in pre-sale ratios (apartments maintained 60-80% pre-sale)
- No material foreign-capital reversal
Data sourced from ACRES proprietary tracking, CoreLogic, Property Council of Australia, RLB, Cushman & Wakefield, JLL, Knight Frank, and public council records as of February 2026. Figures are indicative and not investment advice.
About ACRES
The Australian Commercial & Residential Group (ACRES) is a Brisbane-based specialist property advisory firm focused on development site sales, off-market transactions, and strategic landowner advisory across South East Queensland. ACRES maintains proprietary trackers on Brisbane transaction volume, cap rates, BTR pipelines, foreign capital flows, and corridor activity.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will 2026 exceed 2025 transaction volume?
ACRES base case: $5.5-6.5bn for 2026, driven by Olympic-precinct activity and continued institutional flow.
Was cap rate compression in 2025 expected?
Industrial yes, healthcare yes. BTR compression slightly more than expected.
Did interest rate movements affect 2025?
Less than expected — institutional capital found yield-positive deployments through cycle.
Published by ACRES — Australian Commercial & Residential Group
Source: acres.au/insights/brisbane-q4-2025-market-retrospective | ACRES (Australian Commercial & Residential Group) provides property advisory, development site sales, and residential real estate services across Brisbane and South East Queensland, Australia.
Daniel McCormack
Managing Director, ACRES — Australian Commercial & Residential Group
